The housing market in Southern Oregon is entering a quieter phase this fall, defined by easing mortgage rates, modest price stabilization, and an increase in available listings. These shifts are prompting buyers, sellers, and homeowners to reevaluate their next moves in a landscape that looks very different from the frenzied years of the recent past.
Nationally, mortgage rates have been trending downward after peaking last year. As of mid-October, the average 30-year fixed rate is hovering around 6.30%, with the 15-year fixed near 5.53%. This represents the lowest level in roughly a year, providing some relief to buyers who were previously priced out by 7%–8% borrowing costs. Daily rate trackers show similar averages, reinforcing that the downward trend is holding steady rather than being a temporary dip.
Locally, prices across Southern Oregon have remained relatively stable. In Jackson County, the median home price for existing properties sits at approximately $415,000, while Josephine County’s median is around $370,000. Newer construction and rural properties tend to command higher prices. In Medford, the median sale price in late summer hovered near $424,000, slightly higher than the previous year, with homes typically selling in under a month. Josephine County’s median listing price has stayed close to $489,000, essentially unchanged year over year. At the same time, inventory has been increasing in key submarkets, giving buyers more selection and more leverage during negotiations.
For prospective buyers, this combination of lower interest rates and a growing number of listings is creating a more favorable environment than what existed just a year ago. While rates are still well above the ultra-low levels of the pandemic, the drop from the previous highs has increased purchasing power for those who are pre-approved and ready to act. Sellers, meanwhile, are facing a more discerning buyer pool. Homes that are accurately priced and well prepared for market are moving, while those priced too ambitiously are lingering longer and often facing price reductions later.
For sellers who need to move in the next several months, strategy is everything. Pricing correctly from the start is crucial, particularly as the fall season typically brings fewer buyers. Homes that are staged well, priced realistically, and marketed effectively still have opportunities to sell quickly, especially in desirable neighborhoods. On the other hand, homeowners with low fixed-rate mortgages may find little incentive to sell right now, as trading up to a new mortgage at current rates could increase their monthly payments significantly.
For those on the fence, the decision to buy, sell, or hold comes down to individual circumstances. Homeowners with locked-in low rates may benefit from staying put and building equity. Buyers with stable financing and patience may find attractive opportunities in a less competitive environment. Sellers motivated by lifestyle changes or relocations can still succeed by aligning their pricing with current market realities.
Southern Oregon’s housing market this fall is neither booming nor collapsing. Instead, it is steadying. With mortgage rates easing, inventories rising, and prices stabilizing, it is becoming a market where careful strategy and timing matter more than ever. For some, it’s a moment to buy selectively. For others, it’s a time to sell with precision. And for many, it may simply be wise to hold tight and watch how the next few months unfold.