Prediction markets have exploded in popularity in the last 10 years. While you can seemingly bet on just about anything in these markets these days, they seem to have become particularly important in political campaigns. While generally only active prediction markets exist in federal elections, state gubernatorial campaigns also see some action.
On Thursday of last week, there were even 24 different betting markets on Kalshi where you could bet yes or no on what words President Trump would say in his televised interview with Fox News on Thursday evening. In this time of controversial political figures such as President Trump, polling data becomes less and less reliable as some choose to keep their political opinions private. How people are voting in real time with their pocketbooks can often be a more reliable source of data.
Polymarket, the worlds largest prediction market (no US residents allowed) and Kalshi who is the #1 prediction market in the US both have active markets on who will win the Oregon Governor Republican Primary. There is no real contest for the governor primary in the Democrats’ race, but there is a somewhat vibrant market on the Republican side.
As of Saturday morning May 16th, these two larger prediction markets say on average that Christine Drazan has 77% odds of winning the republican primary for Oregon governor. Polymarket had Christine Drazan at 76% and Kalshi had Drazan at 78% to win.
As shown in the two prediction market charts above, the top three or four republican gubernatorial candidates were duking it out and competitive in much of February and March. Around March 25th Chris Dudley started trailing off and around April 22nd Christine Drazan started taking a commanding lead in the prediction markets.
Christine Drazan was as high as about 84% on average as recently as Thursday of last week, and runner up Ed Diehl seems to have been gaining some ground in recent days. But this is a huge gap for Diehl to overcome, with only a couple days to go until the May 19th primary voting date deadline.
Polymarket has had over $113k in volume in this prediction market race, while over $126k has run through this prediction market on Kalshi. This may seem like pocket change compared to the millions that get invested in Oregon’s gubernatorial campaigns. But in my opinion, it’s enough to be statistically significant and likely to be more of a true indicator than polling data.
These days, polling data is frequently used more heavily by the candidates’ campaigns than it is used by independent parties. Campaigns shout from the rooftops when polls work in their favor and bury segments of polling data that don’t paint them in a favorable light. But “Follow the money” works in elections just like it works in politics in general.
Should the prediction markets be right about this race, many republicans in Josephine and Jackson counties won’t be happy. All three of the top republican candidates’ campaigns made their presence known in southern Oregon last week, either in person or on Medford’s KMED talk radio. From the leading questions and most outspoken republicans on both radio and social media in the last week, you would think Ed Deihl has the commanding lead in southern Oregon markets.
Ed Deihl made some in-person campaign stops in southern Oregon last weekend, and on the Bill Meyer (KMED) radio show last week Deihl himself was bragging about a recent poll that showed him in a virtual tie with Christine Drazan. Chris Dudley was also on KMED last week saying polling data shows that in the November General Election he would be more likely to win against incumbent governor Tina Kotek as compared to Christine Drazan.
I’m not affiliated with any of these political campaigns, have already placed my primary vote on a republican governor candidate, and have no positions in related prediction markets. But if I had to place an unbiased bet on who will win the primary rather than who I want to win the primary, it would have to be Christine Drazan.
In just two days we’ll find out which is more accurate in the Oregon gubernatorial primary, polling data or prediction markets. Without regard to who I think is the best candidate, my crystal ball says the “prediction markets” will be shown to be more reliable.